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Toward Medium-Term Solutions for Rohingya Refugees and Hosts in Bangladesh: Mapping Potential Responsibility – Sharing Contributions
Dr. Cindy Huang is a senior policy fellow and KATE GOUGH is a research associate at the Center for Global Development.
Bangladesh is providing a significant global public good by hosting nearly one million Rohingya refugees, including 700,000 who fled violence carried out with “genocidal intent” in 2017. Most refugees are living in camps in Cox’s Bazar District, where local resources and livelihoods are under strain. The situation has exacerbated development challenges and environmental degradation, such as inadequate public services and rapid deforestation.
Safe, voluntary, and sustainable Rohingya repatriation to Myanmar is ultimately the best solution. However, the conditions for return do not exist, and Myanmar has not demonstrated meaningful progress in establishing them. Even if conditions did exist and voluntary repatriation began tomorrow, estimates show a large number of Rohingya will still be in Cox’s Bazar 10 years from now. The refugee situation is likely to be protracted. Medium- term planning is critical. The international community has an opportunity to recognize Bangladesh’s contributions through a robust responsibility-sharing process. In addition to humanitarian aid, this would include commitments that support development among host communities, as well as broader regional and national development strategies.
There is precedent for development financing and beyond-aid solutions for refugees and host communities, such as in the Jordan, Lebanon, and Ethiopia Compacts. These agreements seek to meet the medium-term needs and generate inclusive growth for refugees and hosts, including through policy adjustments that enable self-reliance and reduce aid dependence. This brief explores the potential range of responsibility-sharing commitments in support of Bangladesh. It does not address the separate and equally important issues of securing justice and accountability for Myanmar’s alleged atrocities and establishing the necessary conditions in Myanmar for safe, voluntary, and sustainable repatriation—nor does it make recommendationson the humanitarian response, which remains essential.
This brief focuses exclusively on the medium-term, development-oriented approach. It covers several categories of contribution and commitment types, including trade and investment, labor mobility, SEZ and infrastructure investment, private sector investment, resettlement, and development and climate finance. Each category includes illustrative examples, some of which are specific to one or a subset of UN Member States and others that are more broadly applicable. Geopolitical factors surrounding the Rohingya situation and potential responsibility-sharing commitments are also discussed. Building on this mapping, we will prepare a full report in 2019. The report will highlight a subset of anchor contributions that could build momentum for a responsibility-sharing process that delivers a “win-win-win” for refugees, host communities, and Bangladesh’s broader development objectives.
Bangladesh is providing an immense global public good by hosting nearly one million Rohingya refugees. The Joint Response Plan estimated that hosting Rohingya refugees required funding of approximately $951 million between March and December 2018. As of December 2018, the plan was 72 percent funded. A new Joint Response Plan and estimated budget for 2019 is currently under development. Moving forward, significant contributions are needed to ensure the well-being of refugees and hosts. Since the current levels of (already insufficient) humanitarian aid may be difficult to sustain, creative thinking on potential contributions is needed. The government of Bangladesh and its partners are rightly focused on achieving the conditions for safe, voluntary, and dignified return to Myanmar. Yet, even if refugees return at a fast pace, Bangladesh will likely host a significant number of refugees for several years. In projected scenarios, even if repatriation started tomorrow, a significant portion of the Rohingya would still be in Cox’s Bazar 10 years from now.
The geopolitical realities of the Rohingya refugee crisis are such that questions of how to engage Myanmar and other key stakeholders are critical to any discussion of responsibility-sharing commitments for Bangladesh. Relations with Myanmar could be an important or determining factor for a number of partners (particularly regional partners) in how and to what extent they engage in a responsibility-sharing process for Bangladesh. Within the region, there have been few consequences for Myanmar for human rights violations and alleged atrocities committed by the military and government. While some regional partners, notably Malaysia, have taken a harder line condemning Myanmar’s brutal actions against the Rohingya, most regional partners are remaining neutral.
