By Rohingya Khobor Opinion Desk
Myanmar’s ruling junta has announced that the first phase of its long-delayed national elections will begin on December 28, 2025. The generals claim this process will restore “multiparty democracy” in a country torn by civil war. Yet for the Rohingya, stripped of citizenship and silenced for decades, this election holds little promise. History and current realities suggest it will serve only as a tool of military legitimacy, not a path toward justice or inclusion.
A History of Exclusion
The Rohingya’s disenfranchisement is not new. Their systematic exclusion began long before the current crisis. After being allowed to vote with temporary “white cards” in the 2010 elections, the government swiftly revoked those documents, stripping them of political rights before the 2015 polls. That year, millions of Burmese citizens celebrated what was hailed as a democratic breakthrough under Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). But for the Rohingya, it was the beginning of another dark chapter: they were denied the right to vote and the right to stand as candidates.
By 2020, the pattern had become entrenched. Rohingya who remained inside Myanmar were barred from the electoral roll entirely, while refugees in Bangladesh and Malaysia had no say in the country’s political direction. This was not an accident—it was the result of deliberate state policy rooted in the 1982 Citizenship Law, which denied Rohingya full citizenship on the false grounds that they were “illegal Bengalis.” Successive governments, both military and civilian, endorsed this line.
The consequences of this exclusion are stark. Around 130,000 Rohingya remain confined to grim camps in central Rakhine State, described by Human Rights Watch as “open-air prisons.” Others live under curfews, travel restrictions, and bureaucratic harassment. These conditions are not merely temporary—they are the result of a state project to erase Rohingya political, social, and cultural presence in Myanmar.
Even under the NLD government, there was no move to restore Rohingya rights. Instead, Aung San Suu Kyi and her ministers went so far as to defend the 2017 military “clearance operations” before the International Court of Justice, despite UN fact-finding missions concluding the campaign had genocidal intent. This bipartisan consensus between military and civilian elites—on excluding Rohingya—means the upcoming election is not a fresh start. It is another chapter in a long cycle of denial.
An Election Without Freedom
The December 2025 polls are already under intense international scrutiny. The junta insists they will be “inclusive and transparent,” but the reality on the ground tells another story.
Since the coup of February 2021, Myanmar has been plunged into a civil war that touches nearly every state and region. The military controls only half the territory, while ethnic armed organizations and pro-democracy resistance groups administer the rest. In such conditions, holding a nationwide election is practically impossible. Even the junta’s own population census last year failed to reach nearly 19 million people—about one-third of the population.
Meanwhile, in areas under junta control, fear prevails. The military has jailed thousands of activists, executed opposition figures, and banned entire political parties such as the NLD. Independent newspapers and broadcasters have been silenced; journalists risk imprisonment or worse. Civil society organizations have been dismantled. A 10-year prison sentence looms over anyone deemed to be obstructing the electoral process.
Without freedom of expression, assembly, or participation, the conditions for a genuine election simply do not exist. The UN Special Rapporteur on Myanmar, Tom Andrews, called the junta’s plan a “mirage,” while Human Rights Watch described it as “farcical.” These words are not exaggerations—they reflect a reality in which elections are being weaponized to simulate legitimacy while the military holds the reins of power.
The stakes are not just political. The military is seeking to convince foreign governments, particularly regional powers, that it is stable and credible enough to merit engagement. Legitimacy, more than votes, is what the junta craves.
The Rohingya Question: Not on the Ballot
For the Rohingya, the upcoming election is less an opportunity than a reminder of their invisibility. Nearly one million Rohingya refugees languish in Bangladesh, Malaysia, and other countries, unable to return home due to fear of persecution. Inside Myanmar, some 600,000 remain trapped in Rakhine State, but their citizenship status ensures they are barred from the political process.
The junta has offered no indication it will reconsider Rohingya disenfranchisement. In its official statements, references to “all eligible voters” clearly exclude Rohingya, who are categorized as foreigners. No registered political party campaigns on restoring their rights; any party or candidate who attempted to do so would be swiftly disqualified.
This silence is deafening. It shows that the Rohingya issue is not just ignored—it is actively erased from the national political discourse. The elections are being designed in such a way that the main victims of Myanmar’s recent history are not even allowed to exist in the national conversation.
Token Repatriation Without Rights
In early 2025, the junta trumpeted an initiative to “verify” 180,000 Rohingya refugees for return from Bangladesh. But the announcement was greeted with skepticism and despair in the camps of Cox’s Bazar. Refugees asked: return to what? To live in segregated camps under armed guard? To face the same discriminatory laws?
Rohingya activists made it clear: repatriation without citizenship, land rights, and protection from violence is meaningless. As one refugee put it, “We will not return to die again.”
This repatriation initiative, timed months before the announced elections, was little more than a political maneuver. It sought to project an image of reconciliation to international audiences, while avoiding any commitment to fundamental change. If anything, it reveals how the junta instrumentalizes the Rohingya issue as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Bangladesh and ASEAN, not as a genuine humanitarian obligation.
Global Stakes
The international community is deeply divided in its response. Some regional powers, including China and Cambodia, have already signaled support for the junta’s roadmap. For them, Myanmar’s election is an “internal affair,” and stability—however manufactured—is preferable to prolonged conflict.
Bangladesh, host to the world’s largest refugee camp, faces its own dilemma. Dhaka is under immense pressure to find a solution to the Rohingya crisis, but knows an illegitimate election will not create conditions for safe repatriation.
Western governments and the United Nations remain skeptical. The U.S. and EU have refused to lift sanctions, stressing that genuine dialogue with the opposition and an end to violence are essential prerequisites for legitimacy. International justice efforts, including genocide proceedings at the International Court of Justice, continue to grind forward despite the junta’s rejection.
For the Rohingya, the stakes are existential. If the world accepts the junta’s election as legitimate, it risks sidelining their plight. It risks making their exclusion permanent.
Conclusion
Myanmar’s December elections are not a step toward democracy but a performance orchestrated by the very generals responsible for atrocity crimes. For the Rohingya, they offer no hope of citizenship, no seat in parliament, and no protection from persecution.
The international community must not be deceived. Instead of legitimizing a charade, it should intensify pressure for accountability, humanitarian aid, and above all the recognition of Rohingya as rightful citizens of Myanmar. Without this, elections will remain empty rituals—acts of political theater masking a continuing system of apartheid and statelessness.
References
- Al Jazeera – “Myanmar’s military government announces elections for December 28.” (18 Aug 2025)
- The Guardian (AFP) – “Myanmar junta ends state of emergency as it prepares for elections.” (31 Jul 2025)
- Human Rights Watch – “Myanmar Junta’s Farcical Plans for Elections.” (11 Mar 2025)
- Anadolu Agency – “UN special rapporteur calls planned election of Myanmar’s military junta ‘mirage’.” (26 Jun 2025)
- Al Jazeera (Thomson Reuters) – “‘We don’t matter’: Rohingya deprived of vote in Myanmar elections.” (6 Nov 2020)
- Al Jazeera – “Rohingya living in ‘open prison’ in Myanmar: Human Rights Watch.” (8 Oct 2020)
- Reuters – “Myanmar confirms 180,000 Rohingya refugees eligible for return, says Bangladesh.” (4 Apr 2025)
- CEIAS – “Myanmar junta’s Rohingya Return Initiative is nothing more than a strategic pretense.” (10 Jul 2025)
- Al Jazeera (Opinion) – “Myanmar must not disenfranchise minority voters.” (28 Oct 2020)
- Human Rights Watch – World Report 2025: Myanmar (Burma). (2025)
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