By: Camp Correspondent
18 June 2025 | Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh
The International Crisis Group (ICG) has raised concerns about increasing tensions along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, warning that certain armed Rohingya factions may be seeking to mobilize support from refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar in response to the recent expansion of the Arakan Army (AA) inside Myanmar’s Rakhine State.
In a report titled “Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency”, the ICG outlines how previously divided armed actors have reportedly begun aligning themselves in opposition to the AA, particularly since late 2024, following the AA’s territorial gains in northern Rakhine.
According to the report, some groups—historically active in the region—held a gathering in December 2024 calling for a collective stance against recent hostilities. The ICG notes that this marks a significant shift in the security landscape of both Myanmar and adjacent refugee areas.
Arakan Army’s Expansion Sparks Concern
The Arakan Army, a Rakhine-based armed group, has taken control of large parts of Rakhine State, including many areas close to the Bangladesh border. Amid these developments, the Government of Bangladesh has reportedly initiated limited diplomatic contact with the AA in an attempt to maintain stability along the border.
However, the ICG cautions that increased militarization within refugee communities could undermine these efforts and complicate the fragile prospects for voluntary repatriation.
“Such developments risk further marginalizing Rohingya refugees and fuelling negative perceptions that may delay any future return efforts,” the report said.
Security and Stability in Camps at Risk
The ICG urges Bangladeshi authorities to prioritize peace and civic leadership inside the camps, warning that any form of militarized activity—whether organized or reactionary—could destabilize the already vulnerable refugee population.
The report recommends measures including greater engagement with community leaders, ensuring humanitarian access, and maintaining dialogue with all actors to prevent the spread of violence or extremism.
According to ICG, some security elements may be hoping that uniting armed actors under one banner could reduce internal clashes. However, the report warns that such assumptions are risky and could backfire.
Refugees Trapped in a Complex Crisis
The report also points to the difficult situation Rohingya refugees are facing—caught between past persecution, uncertain futures, and new political pressures.
In early 2024, the Myanmar military reportedly attempted to forcibly conscript Rohingya men to fight against the AA, prompting widespread resistance. However, recent abuses and rising anti-Rohingya sentiment from AA-linked forces have also pushed some individuals toward defensive affiliations.
“The Rohingya must not be forced into a conflict not of their making,” the ICG cautioned. “Any form of militarization risks worsening their already precarious position.”
International Action Needed
The ICG calls for greater international engagement, emphasizing that declining humanitarian aid—particularly from major donors—has left camps vulnerable to insecurity, desperation, and influence from armed actors.
The report urges all parties, including the Arakan Army, to uphold humanitarian principles and support inclusive dialogue, warning that without constructive intervention, the crisis could worsen further.
“This moment calls for responsibility, restraint, and renewed commitment to peace—for the Rohingya and for the region as a whole.”
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