By Hafizur Rahman
August 2, 2025 — Pauktaw, Rakhine State
Myanmar’s military junta is reportedly preparing for a large-scale military operation to retake control of Pauktaw Township in northern Rakhine, heightening fears among Rohingya and Rakhine civilians already enduring months of conflict, displacement, and insecurity.
Pauktaw Township has been under the control of the Arakan Army (AA) since March 4, 2024, and has witnessed both military build-ups and targeted abuses over the past year. Analysts believe the junta’s sudden urgency to reclaim the area is tied to its desire to showcase territorial gains ahead of national elections scheduled to begin later this year.
“The junta is eager for another ‘victory’ before the polls,” said Colonel Zin Yaw, a former army officer now aligned with the Civil Disobedience Movement. “But Rakhine is not Shan or Mandalay. The terrain and political dynamics here are far more complex.”
Military Build-up and Displacement
Since July 20, junta forces have been reinforcing positions along the Sittwe–Pauktaw border, setting up bases in villages like Myinkyun, Kyauktan Chaung, Kankaw Kyun, Zaumat, and Amyintkyon. Meanwhile, residents from Aydin, Kyuito, Kwantaung, Paday, Sinnin Gyi, and Bunagyon have already fled their homes due to intensifying artillery shelling.
“We hear shelling every day now. People are leaving even before the ground fighting starts,” said a local from eastern Pauktaw.
Military analysts say the Myanmar Navy has also been conducting training exercises in the Bay of Bengal, possibly in preparation for a coordinated operation near Maungdaw.
What’s at Stake
The junta recently claimed to have retaken control of eight townships in Shan, Kachin, Mandalay, and Sagaing, but many observers have cast doubt on those statements. In contrast, Rakhine State remains largely under AA control, except for Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung.
Control over Pauktaw, situated near the state capital Sittwe, is seen as a strategic objective—both militarily and symbolically—before elections.
According to the 2008 Constitution, the junta retains 25% of parliamentary seats by default and maintains control over powerful ministries like Defense, Interior, and Border Affairs. However, it seeks additional legitimacy through elections, despite ongoing conflict in vast parts of the country.
Rohingya at the Crossroads
Caught between two armed forces—the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) and the Arakan Army—the Rohingya population in and around Pauktaw faces renewed peril. Many are already living in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, while others have been subjected to forced recruitment, extortion, and restricted movement by both sides.
“We don’t know where to run anymore,” said a Rohingya teacher from the outskirts of Pauktaw. “The junta bombed us in 2017, and the AA now controls everything but offers no protection. We are trapped.”
Calls for Monitoring and Humanitarian Access
With the threat of a full-scale offensive looming, humanitarian workers and civil society groups are urging for international monitoring and unhindered access to civilian areas, especially camps and villages housing displaced Rohingya and Rakhine residents.
“This is not just a military strategy—it’s a campaign that could trigger another wave of mass displacement,” said a rights monitor based in Cox’s Bazar. “And the Rohingya, as always, are the most vulnerable.
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