By: Camp Correspondent
March 24, 2025 —
Several Rakhine political leaders have stated that the region is not in a position to accept returning Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh, citing political uncertainty and limited resources under the current circumstances.
U Myo Kyaw, a member of the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), told CNI News that Arakan State remains unstable and that local administration is still under formation by the Arakan Army (AA). He argued that even if the AA gains full control, the region would still lack the infrastructure to receive returning Rohingya.
“The Arakan Army has not completed its revolution. Governance, public services, and security need to be rebuilt. Without international assistance, it would be unrealistic to expect Rakhine society to bear responsibility for the returnees,” Myo Kyaw said.
Bangladesh Plans for Repatriation by 2026
The remarks follow a visit by UN Secretary-General António Guterres to the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar, where he was joined by Bangladesh’s interim leader Dr. Muhammad Yunus. During the visit, Bangladeshi officials reiterated plans to begin Rohingya repatriation by 2026, though no concrete framework has been announced.
While Guterres acknowledged the need for international coordination, he also stressed that dialogue with the Arakan Army (AA) would be essential to facilitate a safe, voluntary, and dignified return.
However, Towhid Hossain, Bangladesh’s foreign affairs advisor, noted that the process largely depends on the cooperation of local authorities inside Arakan and the stance of Myanmar’s central government—both of which remain unclear.
Repatriation Requires Inclusive Dialogue
U Khun Sein, a participant in Myanmar’s peace process, emphasized that meaningful repatriation is unlikely without a multi-stakeholder agreement that includes the Rohingya community itself.
“This is not just a humanitarian issue; it’s deeply political. Repatriation cannot be successful without agreement between the Arakan Army, the government of Myanmar, Bangladesh, and the Rohingya themselves,” he said. “If decisions are made only between Bangladesh and Naypyidaw, it will not work.”
Uncertainty Around Refugee Numbers and Return Conditions
While Myanmar authorities claim that approximately 600,000 Muslims fled during the 2017 military operations, the United Nations estimates the figure to be over 1.2 million. The majority of these displaced Rohingya now reside in Bangladesh, living in overcrowded refugee camps with limited rights and no clear path to return.
Despite Bangladesh’s desire to begin repatriation, Arakan-based authorities and community leaders have yet to present a plan to accept the returnees or recognize their identity and rights. Meanwhile, no clear commitment has been made by the AA on whether it will facilitate the safe return of the Rohingya to their original lands.
A Community in Limbo
For the Rohingya, who have been denied citizenship, freedom of movement, and access to education and healthcare for decades, the recent comments by Rakhine leaders only add to the growing uncertainty.
Without guarantees of safety, recognition, and equal rights, any repatriation effort risks becoming another form of displacement. As political actors in Arakan and beyond debate responsibilities, the Rohingya community remains caught in limbo—stateless, displaced, and waiting for justice.
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