The issue of Rohingya repatriation is getting more complicated for Bangladesh with the rebel armed group Arakan Army (AA) controlling most of the bordering Rakhine state.
Intensified fighting between the Myanmar junta and AA has also created a serious security threat along the 271-km Bangladesh-Myanmar border, said international relations analysts.
This also puts Bangladesh in an awkward position in terms of diplomatic relations with Myanmar if the AA takes full control of Rakhine.
“Myanmar has virtually no central control over the border with Bangladesh as the Arakan Army controls the majority of it. Thus, our physical border security is already shaky,” said M Sakhawat Hussain, a senior fellow at the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance at North South University.
As of now, Bangladesh maintains a diplomatic relationship with Myanmar’s military, which took control of the country through a coup in February 2021.
“The question arising now is with whom should Bangladesh communicate when it comes to border security? Is it the Myanmar military or Arakan Army?” said Sakhawat, a retired brigadier general.
Analysts say Bangladesh’s relations with Myanmar have remained fraught because of repeated influx of the Rohingya since the 1980s. It deteriorated following the influx of about 7.5 lakh Rohingya in 2017.
Meanwhile, after the military coup in 2021, the Peoples Defence Force, the armed wing of the National Unity Government (NUG) and other ethnic rebel groups across Myanmar, have taken control of the majority of the country.
Since November last year, the AA captured 10 key towns — nine in Rakhine and one in adjacent Chin state — according to a report of the International Crisis Group.
On May 18, AA captured Buthidaung town and seized much of Maungdaw in the Rohingya-majority region. In so doing, the AA now has control over most of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.
Tens of thousands of people, mostly Rohingya in Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships, were displaced following the looting and burning of Rohingya homes in Buthidaung and surrounding villages.
According to the UN, about 4,000 Rohingya took shelter near the Naf river close to the Bangladesh border about a month ago. It also called on Bangladesh and other states to provide shelter to those seeking it.
The fighting also forced nearly 800 members of Myanmar’s Border Guard Police, military and their family members to take shelter in Bangladesh in recent months. They were later repatriated.
In early June, bullets were fired from Myanmar at boats on the Naf river, which caused some 10,000 Bangladeshis to be stranded on the St Martin’s Island.
Over the last several years, the Myanmar army violated airspace and bullets landed on Bangladesh territory, leaving people injured. Bangladesh repeatedly protested the incidents.
Bangladesh’s physical relation with Myanmar is through Rakhine state, and that configuration is now changing with the non-state actors controlling this border, said Sakhawat, also a former election commissioner.
“Clearly, there is a huge security threat … the options for Bangladesh are limited.”
If the Myanmar junta counterattacks the AA, the situation will only worsen at the border, Sakhawat said. “What would happen if the Arakan Army crosses the border to Bangladesh while fighting? Will Bangladesh take their side?”
As the Myanmar military has conscripted Rohingyas into the force, the AA’s position is against them. So, there is a risk of Rohingya-AA direct confrontation, he said.
Another side-effect of the fighting is that drug smuggling through the Bangladesh-Myanmar border may be rampant as the warring forces often make money out of drug sales, Sakhawat added.
Subsequently, Bangladesh must send security reinforcements along the 271 km-long land and maritime border, according to experts.
“We are absolutely troubled by the conflicts and their implications on Bangladesh,” said an official of the foreign ministry.
The Myanmar authorities have been warned not to make Bangladesh a casualty of their fighting. “We have beefed up border security measures so that Rohingyas cannot enter our territory,” he added.
Bangladesh will not be able to shoot the Rohingyas if they forcefully enter Bangladesh en masse, said Munshi Faiz Ahmad, a former ambassador.
Before that happens, Bangladesh needs to take serious diplomatic initiatives so the Rohingyas can stay in Rakhine, maybe in camps, under international supervision.
He suggested Bangladesh raise its voice at the UN and hold dialogues with the US, India and China regarding the matter.
“We cannot be burdened again and again by the Rohingya crisis created by Myanmar,” said Ahmad, also a former chairman of the Bangladesh Institute of International Strategic Studies.
The UN Security should seriously consider deploying UN peacekeepers in Rakhine to maintain peace, said Shahab Enam Khan, a professor of international relations at Jahangirnagar University.
“International law is not only applicable to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has limits too. How long can the people of Bangladesh take responsibility for the Rohingya?”
Bangladesh can support developing a humanitarian corridor, allowing international aid agencies to reach food and other emergency supplies to Rakhine State for the displaced Rohingya, he added.
Sakhawat suggested that it would be best if the UN could arrange places within Rakhine where the Rohingya can take shelter.
“The UN can make a global call on this instead of pushing Bangladesh to take the responsibility,” he said.
There are about one million Rohingyas in the camps in Cox’s Bazar, with yearly births of 30,000.
Rohingya repatriation could not be possible, even under a tripartite initiative led by China, as Rohingya were not convinced by the guarantee of safety and citizenship in Rakhine.
The NUG, the Myanmar government in exile since 2021, had pledged citizenship and recognition of Rohingya as an ethnic group of Myanmar. However, analysts expect the AA to have stronger autonomy even if Myanmar becomes a federal democracy.
Also, the AA thinks Rohingya are outsiders, so it will be difficult to continue repatriation efforts if the AA controls the Rakhine state.
Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud said repatriation of the Rohingya under the present conditions in Rakhine is not possible in the near future. However, the government will continue to engage the international community in Rohingya repatriation.
Until then, the burden on Bangladesh is getting heavier, with funding for Rohingya on the wane.
As much as $852 million is needed for the upkeep of Rohingya in the camps in 2024. So far, less than 30 percent of the sum has come through.
“It is important for Bangladesh to establish contacts with the Arakan Army, even if informally. If they control Rakhine, there will be no alternatives to establishing relations with them,” Ahmad said.
