By Maung Solaiman Shah
Kutupalong Refugee Camp, Cox’s Bazar |
Myanmar’s military regime is preparing for what it calls a national election, yet to many both inside and outside the country, the event feels less like a democratic process and more like a carefully crafted performance. For those who have lived through years of crackdowns, airstrikes and mass displacement, the so-called election appears to be another attempt to disguise military rule under the language of ballots and candidates.
A Manufactured Vision of Democracy
The military, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, seized power on one February 2021, overthrowing the democratically elected government and detaining key leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup was justified with unproven allegations of fraud in the 2020 election, a claim widely rejected by international observers.
Four years later, the regime is planning an election of its own. Analysts describe this as an effort to manufacture legitimacy rather than return authority to the people. Civil society observers, speaking anonymously because of safety concerns, said the junta aims to create an image of stability while silencing dissent across the country. They note that a controlled election provides the appearance of progress without addressing any of the violence or injustice that has defined military rule since 2021.
A Climate of Repression, Not Participation
Since the coup, Myanmar has witnessed thousands of arrests, widespread torture and extrajudicial killings. Reports from the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners confirm that more than twenty thousand political detainees remain in custody, including activists, journalists, students and lawmakers. Ethnic minorities such as the Rohingya, Karen, Kachin, Chin and Karenni communities continue to face persecution and displacement.
“For people living under airstrikes and raids, talk of elections feels cruel,” said a Rohingya youth activist from the border area. “How can there be democracy when people are living under fear and fire every day?”
Experts say the current environment offers none of the freedoms necessary for a genuine election: no freedom of expression, no political competition, and no guarantee of safety for voters.
Resistance Movements Reject the Vote
Across Myanmar, resistance forces have rejected the junta’s plans outright. The National Unity Government, formed by elected lawmakers and civil society groups, has repeatedly stated that it will not participate in what it considers a false and coercive process. Ethnic armed organizations, including those fighting in Kachin, Karenni, Chin and Sagaing regions, continue active resistance. Young activists document abuses at great personal risk while pushing for a federal democratic union.
In public statements, the National Unity Government said the country’s future cannot be determined by generals with guns. Resistance groups argue that any election conducted under military supervision is fundamentally illegitimate.
International Response: Divided and Uneasy
The international reaction remains fractured. Western governments, including the United States, Canada and the European Union, have condemned the junta’s election plans and refused to accept the results. However, regional powers such as China and Russia continue diplomatic and economic engagement with the military, providing the regime with critical political cover.
ASEAN, the regional bloc, has struggled to form a unified position. Member states are divided between calling for stronger pressure and maintaining engagement. Human rights groups have urged the international community to deny recognition to any junta-backed administration, warning that acceptance would normalize ongoing violations.
The Exclusion of the Rohingya
For the Rohingya, the election is another reminder of their erasure from Myanmar’s political fabric. Having been stripped of citizenship through discriminatory laws and targeted in waves of violence, more than one million Rohingya live in exile. They remain excluded from voting, from representation, and from any vision of the country’s future as currently defined by the military.
“An election without our participation is an illusion,” said Maung Solaiman Shah, a Rohingya young leader and advocate. “The generals decide everything, but they do not represent us. They do not even acknowledge our existence.”
Expert Insight: Ro Nay San Lwin on the Junta’s Strategy
Rohingya rights activist and Co-Chair of the Arakan Rohingya National Council, Ro Nay San Lwin, offered a historical perspective. He noted that the Rohingya voted in elections from 1935 onward, and had political representation until their rights were removed in 2015. He said any legitimate election must begin with the restoration of Rohingya citizenship and political rights.
According to him, what the junta is attempting is merely a change of presentation, not a change of system. “A uniform can change, but the structure of oppression remains,” he said. He added that the struggle for a federal democratic union will continue until the military completely exits politics.
Arakan Army’s Narrative and Realities on the Ground
Regarding the Arakan Army’s recent claims of including Rohingya in governance and respecting religious freedoms, Ro Nay San Lwin expressed deep concern. He said the AA has committed serious abuses against Rohingya communities, including forced recruitment and violence, in areas it now controls.
He added that recent photos, videos and media content showing inclusion appear to be part of a damage-control strategy rather than a genuine shift. He also pointed out that forced conscription is affecting not only Rohingya but also Rakhine and other ethnic minority women.
“The AA uses armed power to shape the narrative it wants, while communities face a very different reality,” he said. He noted that some Rakhine politicians preparing to join the upcoming election are doing so without resistance from the AA, which he sees as part of a broader political strategy.
The Road Ahead
While the junta attempts to stage a version of normalcy, Myanmar continues to live through one of the most violent chapters in its modern history. Millions remain displaced, civil disobedience persists, and resistance movements continue to push for a democratic future. The fight for justice rests on unity among ethnic groups, continued international pressure and the courage of young people who refuse to accept military rule as their destiny.
The planned election may be held under the shadow of guns, but across Myanmar and in refugee camps around the region, the desire for freedom remains unbroken.
