By: Tin Thein
As Bangladesh positions itself as the guardian of the Bay of Bengal, its control over the strategically significant Naaf River—separating Teknaf in Bangladesh from Maungdaw South in Myanmar—faces growing challenges. Recent developments show that the Arakan Army (AA), an insurgent force originating in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, has extended its activities to the riverine border, raising serious concerns for Bangladesh’s national security and the Rohingya refugee population.
Shift of Power in Arakan
In August 2024, the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) lost control over large portions of Rakhine State to the Arakan Army after a series of defeats. The AA, largely composed of ethnic Rakhine Buddhists, now dominates the region, including critical border areas and waterways. Support from Rakhine communities on both sides of the border, including Bangladesh’s Bandarban district, has reportedly enabled sustained logistics for the group.
Piracy and Fishermen Under Threat
The AA’s operations now include controlling stretches of the 84-kilometre river border. Local fishermen report that AA patrols in high-speed boats have blocked fishing activities, even before the start of the official 58-day seasonal ban. Over 150 fishermen have reportedly been kidnapped or ransomed. Smuggling of yaba and other illicit activities have further escalated tensions.
Ideology and Regional Influence
Many in Bangladesh initially expected the AA to maintain peaceful relations, but overlooked its ideological framework known as “The Way of the Rakhita,” which has historically harboured hostility toward both Rohingya Muslims and Bangladeshi interests. The AA’s current dominance over Paltwa township also makes it a key player in India’s Kaladan transport project, further complicating Bangladesh’s position.
Historical Parallels and Present-Day Concerns
The AA draws inspiration from Arakan’s pre-colonial history under the Mrauk U kings, a period marked by maritime raids and alliances with European privateers. This historical narrative includes the Rakhine-Portuguese raids into Bengal, which led to widespread pillaging and the enslavement of Bengali civilians. Present-day actions by the AA—particularly against the Rohingya—evoke uncomfortable echoes of that violent legacy.
Bangladesh’s Strategic Dilemma
Previous Bangladeshi governments struggled to contain incursions by Myanmar’s Border Guard Police and Tatmadaw forces. A widely reported incident involved a Bangladeshi border guard being abducted, publicly humiliated, and paraded by Myanmar forces in Maungdaw. The current shift in power to the Arakan Army demands a reassessment of security protocols.
While Bangladesh’s military is theoretically stronger than both the AA and the Tatmadaw, the state has yet to take firm action against AA incursions in border areas like Bandarban. Observers have criticised past policies of appeasement and call for the new government to adopt a firmer stance.
The Need for Policy Reform and Immediate Action
Strategists warn that the AA’s ideological vision poses long-term risks—not just for border stability but for the millions of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. Delays in response could lead to a loss of strategic territory, economic hardship for local communities, and further endangerment of displaced populations.
As the 58-day fishing ban nears its end, urgent action is needed to secure the Naaf River and reinforce Bangladesh’s sovereignty. The situation demands not only tactical readiness but also diplomatic clarity, regional cooperation, and a humane approach that includes protection for vulnerable groups like the Rohingya.
