In a significant turn of events, the Arakan Army (AA) has emerged as the dominant political force in Arakan State, Myanmar, marking a dramatic shift in the region’s political landscape. This transformation from a rebel group to the de facto rulers of the state underscores the complexities and volatile nature of Myanmar’s regional politics.
The Rise of the Arakan Army
Founded in April 2009 by Twan Mrat Naing and a small group of Arakanese youths, the Arakan Army set out with the vision of establishing an “Arakan Nation” through what they termed the “Way of Rakhita.” The AA initially based itself in Kachin State along the China border, leveraging the political upheavals in Myanmar to expand its influence.
Key events that facilitated the AA’s growth include the 2009 and 2015 Kokang wars, the breakdown of a ceasefire in Kachin State in 2011, and the 2012 communal violence in Rakhine State. The AA’s significant rise began around 2015, following its participation in the 2014 Arakan National Conference and subsequent armed clashes. The group garnered substantial local support despite its exclusion from the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement.
Strategic Expansion and Consolidation
The failure of the National League for Democracy’s (NLD) administration to include the Arakan National Party (ANP) in their administration, despite the ANP winning the majority in Rakhine State elections, further fueled the AA’s rise. During the USDP administration (2011–15), the AA focused on building its military capabilities and establishing a presence in key regions of Arakan.
The period from 2016 to 2020 under the NLD administration saw the AA expand its influence and consolidate its position through strategic military engagements and increased local support.
From Rebellion to Governance
The 2021 military coup in Myanmar presented the AA with new opportunities to assert its dominance. While supporting anti-military coup resistance forces, the group began to engage in general administration and judiciary activities. Balancing relations between the State Administration Council (SAC) and pro-federal democracy forces, the AA launched a series of armed clashes from August to November 2022, which culminated in a ‘humanitarian ceasefire.’
“1027 Operation” and Military Campaign
In November 2023, the AA launched the “1027 Operation,” a significant military offensive aimed at expanding its control. By mid-May 2024, the AA had captured around 10 townships, solidifying its position as the key dominant actor in Arakan State. This campaign marked a new paradigm for Arakan, with the AA transitioning from a rebel group to the primary governing authority.
Socioeconomic and humanitarian impacts
The ongoing conflict and the AA’s rise to power have had severe repercussions for the socioeconomic and humanitarian conditions in Arakan State. The region faces acute shortages of food, medicine, fuel, and water, exacerbating the already dire living conditions. Furthermore, the AA’s governance has drawn massive criticism from Rohingya diaspora groups and human rights organizations, highlighting the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the state.
Conclusion
The Arakan Army’s ascent from a small armed group to the dominant political force in Arakan State underscores the dynamic and often turbulent nature of regional politics in Myanmar. As the AA consolidates its power, the future of governance in Arakan remains uncertain, with significant challenges ahead in achieving stability and addressing the pressing humanitarian needs of the region.
