The analysts urged caution over recent repatriation promises, warning that political announcements are running ahead of conditions for safe and sustainable Rohingya return.
by RK Desk
DHAKA, 14 August 2026: Rohingya refugees must not be turned into political or geopolitical pawns as regional governments make renewed promises about repatriation, two Bangladeshi analysts have warned.
Writing in The Daily Star on 12 August, Professor Sk Tawfique M Haque of North South University and political and international affairs analyst Simon Mohsin argued that repeated announcements about Rohingya return should be treated cautiously unless they are backed by credible agreements and conditions on the ground.
Their intervention followed a recent statement by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim that Myanmar had agreed to receive 5,000 Rohingya refugees from Malaysia. Anwar also suggested that around 300,000 Rohingya could eventually return from Bangladesh.
Haque and Mohsin questioned whether any publicly verifiable agreement currently exists that could guarantee the safety, citizenship, dignity and rights of Rohingya returning to Myanmar.
They argued that any realistic repatriation process must also take account of the current political and military situation in Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army has emerged as the dominant territorial actor across much of the state.
A return process that fails to engage those exercising effective control over the areas to which Rohingya would return would be incomplete, they argued.
Conditions for Return Remain Absent
The authors stressed that refugee repatriation under international standards must be voluntary, safe, dignified and sustainable.
They argued that those conditions do not currently exist in Myanmar, where fighting between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army has continued and the humanitarian situation has deteriorated.
They also recalled earlier optimistic statements about Rohingya return.
During a visit by the UN Secretary-General to Cox’s Bazar in March 2025, Bangladesh’s then Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus expressed hope that Rohingya refugees would be able to celebrate the following Eid in their homes in Myanmar.
More than a year later, however, no credible framework for large-scale repatriation has emerged.
New Displacement While Repatriation Is Discussed
The analysts pointed out that the discussion about returning Rohingya is taking place even as more people continue to flee Rakhine State.
Citing UNHCR figures, they said approximately 150,000 additional Rohingya had entered Bangladesh following renewed fighting that began in November 2023.
They argued that continued displacement from Rakhine demonstrates the gap between political promises of repatriation and conditions inside Myanmar.
Bangladesh Faces Growing Pressure
The article also highlighted the growing strain on Bangladesh as it continues to host more than one million Rohingya refugees while international humanitarian funding declines.
Aid agencies have repeatedly warned that funding shortages threaten food assistance, education and other essential services in the camps.
Haque and Mohsin said Bangladesh has provided significant humanitarian protection to Rohingya since the mass displacement of 2017, but argued that the country cannot indefinitely carry the responsibility without greater international burden-sharing and stronger diplomatic action.
They called for diplomacy grounded in current realities inside Myanmar, sustained humanitarian financing and a credible roadmap for voluntary, safe and dignified return.
“The Rohingya, who have already paid an unbearable price through decades of persecution, should not have to bear the additional burden of becoming political pawns,” the authors wrote.
They concluded that major announcements promising repatriation should be treated with caution until they are supported by credible political, security and rights guarantees.
