by Hafizur Rahman
Northern Rakhine State | July 9, 2026
The risk of river flooding and flash floods in northern Rakhine State is expected to increase over the next 48 hours, according to the latest flood forecast, with water levels in some areas projected to peak between July 10 and July 12.
According to the forecast, the upper monitoring point in northern Rakhine has reached the Extreme Alert (Purple) Level. The probability of river flow exceeding the highest level recorded during the past 20 years has increased to 47 percent, up from 35 percent in the previous forecast.
The forecast also indicates a 100 percent probability that river flow will exceed the two-year return level and around a 90 percent probability of exceeding the five-year return level, suggesting that water levels could rise well above normal.
Forecasters expect rivers in the upper parts of northern Rakhine to reach their highest levels around July 10, while rivers in central and lower areas, including those near Sittwe, could peak between July 11 and July 12.
If significant flooding occurs, floodwaters could remain in affected areas for 15 to 16 days. The forecast estimates that approximately 3,696 hectares of farmland and about 5,200 people could be directly affected.
Although the overall impact is currently assessed as low to medium, prolonged flooding could damage crops, disrupt transportation, and affect the daily lives of communities across northern Rakhine.
The forecast is based on projected river flows, and actual conditions may vary depending on rainfall, local terrain, and river channel conditions.
Residents, including Rohingya communities living in flood-prone areas, are advised to closely monitor weather and river updates and take precautionary measures as flood risks are expected to increase from July 10 onward.
