Many civilians in Rakhine State are finding themselves in the crossfire as the Arakan Army rebel group makes sweeping gains and challenges the military junta and Rohingya fighters.
Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
On 5 August, a deadly attack on civilians in Maungdaw, a town in Myanmar’s western Rakhine State, reportedly killed dozens of people, including women and children. The exact number of victims remains unclear, but eyewitness accounts suggest it could be anywhere between 50 and 200.
The incident is part of a broader offensive within the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. On 4 August, the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic insurgent group composed of ethnic Rakhine Buddhists, had launched an attack on Maungdaw.
The AA has been fighting against the military government, known as the State Administrative Council (SAC), since the army leadership seized power by overthrowing the democratically elected government in February 2021.
The military coup worsened ethnic tensions in the Southeast Asian country and exacerbated the civil war.
In Maungdaw, the AA faced off against SAC troops and various Rohingya militias, particularly the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) and, to some extent, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA).
These militias — while fighting alongside the Myanmar military, which was responsible for the violent expulsion of around 740,000 Rohingya to Bangladesh in 2017 — also have their own agendas.
Escape from the combat zone
In the days leading up to 4 August, the AA had called on the civilian population, made up almost entirely of Rohingya, to evacuate the region.
The SAC and Rohingya militias, however, urged civilians to stay put. Many chose not to leave, fearing they would lose their possessions.
As the AA advanced, SAC troops fortified themselves in their camp, while Rohingya fighters and civilians fled.
A report by the human rights organisation Fortify Rights and an interview with Chris Lewa of The Arakan Project confirmed that some fighters were among the fleeing civilians.
Amid the fighting, a chaotic escape unfolded. The only available exit led west toward the Naf River, which forms the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh. The confusion and panic resulted in multiple deadly incidents on 5 and 6 August.
Unclear details
For this story, DW interviewed several people, including Rohingya Zainul Mustafa, Muhamad Husein, and Umar Farok; historian Jacques Leider; NGO leader Chris Lewa and AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha.
DW also reviewed reports from the United League of Arakan, the political wing of AA, the global think tank International Crisis Group, and Fortify Rights.
The sources and eyewitness statements sometimes contradict each other. Events are not always clearly defined by time or place, and many statements are generalised.
For instance, the AA or Rohingya militias are blamed for certain acts, but details of the specific location or timing are unclear. Images and videos circulating on social media offer little clarity, as the following example demonstrates.
What do we know about the 5 August attack?
On 5 August 2024, Rohingya activist Wai Wai Nu posted a threat on X, formerly Twitter, reporting a mass killing near Maungdaw, where more than 50 Rohingya were killed. She also posted a short video showing victims of the attack.
DW analysed the video and confirmed its authenticity, as at least two other videos captured the same scene from different angles. However, the video cannot be shown or linked here due to its graphic content and to protect the victims.
The videos show around 22 bodies and at least four severely injured individuals at a T-junction near the Naf River, west of Maungdaw.
Forensic expert Markus Rothschild, director of Forensic Medicine at the University of Cologne in Germany, stated that the footage quality was insufficient for detailed analysis. However, he said it was clear that the bodies had not yet shown signs of decomposition, which indicates the killings likely took place on 5 August, shortly after the AA offensive began on 4 August.
The cause of death appears to be ballistic trauma, possibly from projectiles or shrapnel. However, the videos do not indicate who carried out the attack or what specific weapons were used.
Rothschild noted that it’s possible that firearms or drones detonating at low altitudes were used, while artillery or mortars with contact fuses could be ruled out due to the lack of impact craters.
Dealing with uncertainty
This uncertainty applies not only to the attack at the T-junction but to the overall events in Maungdaw at the beginning of August.
So far, all attributions of responsibility are based on witness statements that cannot be independently verified.
In the chaos, friendly fire — accidental attacks on one’s own forces — or a false-flag operation cannot be ruled out.
It is undisputed, however, that all sides have shown too little regard for the civilian population, committing what amounts to war crimes.
Calls for de-escalation
The many unanswered questions have led to speculation and accusations. Rohingya activists abroad and militias claim the AA is committing genocide, comparing it to the SAC.
AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha told DW that these activists are not genuinely concerned for the Rohingya but are seeking “to advance their own personal interest.”
“They are using the Rohingya to benefit immensely from international donors and organisations,” he said.
Rohingya have said the RSO and ARSA, on the other hand, claim to represent them but, in reality, are often concerned only about their own interests and exploit the community. A recent report by Human Rights Watch reported that these groups had trafficked 1,800 Rohingya from the camps in Cox’s Bazar to Myanmar and into the army of the military junta.
Meanwhile, Chris Lewa, the NGO leader, emphasised the need for de-escalation. “The question is, how can we de-escalate?” she asked.
According to Lewa, rhetorical disarmament is the first step. “There is hate speech from both sides,” she said, which complicates the necessary cooperation.
But there is no way around cooperation because “the international community is not going to save anyone.” Ultimately, the Rohingya and Rakhine people must find a way to co-exist, which Lewa believes can happen on a local level if community leaders work together.
There are already examples in Rakhine State where this is happening.
The widespread impact of civil war
It’s essential to recognise that the civil war has affected both Rohingya and Rakhine populations.
The Rakhine people have also lost their homes and suffer from severe shortages of food, clean water and medicine.
The International Crisis Group reports that the SAC’s blockade of supply routes has worsened the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine State, with around 300,000 internally displaced people dependent on aid, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA).
Lewa argues that the real source of the crisis is the military-junta-led government.
She believes the current conflict in Rakhine State stems mainly from the SAC’s conscription law, which has forced the Rohingya to pick a side in a war “they have nothing to do with or to gain from.”
