By Center for Rohingya Crisis Studies | August 2025
Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh — August 2025 marked eight years since the 2017 genocidal attacks forced hundreds of thousands of Rohingya from their homeland. Instead of progress, the situation has spiraled into one of the darkest moments in recent history. Across Myanmar’s Rakhine State, in Bangladesh’s refugee camps, and throughout the wider region, the Rohingya remain trapped between war, hunger, and shrinking asylum.
The Center for Rohingya Crisis Studies’ latest monthly review highlights a worsening three-front emergency: war and famine in Rakhine, collapsing aid in Bangladesh, and declining protection in South and Southeast Asia.
Rakhine State: War, Abuses, and Imminent Famine
Conflict in Rakhine has escalated dramatically. The Arakan Army (AA) now controls 14 of the state’s 17 townships, surrounding junta strongholds in Sittwe and Ann. But instead of relief for civilians, the shift has worsened conditions for the 300,000 to 350,000 Rohingya still trapped in the state.
Both the AA and the junta have intensified persecution. Forced conscription has become systematic, with men compelled to join either side. Reports from Fortify Rights and others detail horrific abuses by the AA, including extrajudicial killings, beheadings, and torture. Meanwhile, the junta continues its campaign of violence: burning villages, bombing civilians, and blocking aid in tactics reminiscent of 2017.
The humanitarian consequences are devastating. Farmers and fishermen are cut off from markets, industries have collapsed, and food prices have soared. The World Food Programme (WFP) reports that 57 percent of families in central Rakhine cannot afford basic food. In northern Rakhine, largely inaccessible to aid agencies, the situation is believed to be far worse. UN officials now warn of an imminent famine that could threaten more than two million people.
Bangladesh: Aid Cuts Push Camps Toward Collapse
Bangladesh hosts over 1.3 million Rohingya refugees, most in the overcrowded camps of Cox’s Bazar and 37,000 more on Bhasan Char. Since late 2023, renewed violence in Myanmar has driven an additional 150,000 to 200,000 people into Bangladesh, intensifying pressure on already fragile services.
The central challenge is funding. The 2025–26 Joint Response Plan (JRP) is only 37 percent funded—just $342 million of the $934.5 million required. The shortfall has triggered severe consequences:
- Food insecurity: Without $173 million in urgent funding, all food assistance will end by November. Severe Acute Malnutrition admissions for children have already risen by 27 percent, with overall child malnutrition surpassing the World Health Organization’s emergency threshold of 15 percent.
- Education collapse: More than 6,400 learning centers shut down in June 2025, leaving nearly 300,000 children without schooling. Reports of child marriage and child labor are rising sharply.
- Health crisis: Reproductive health services for 315,000 women and programs for survivors of gender-based violence face closure in 2026.
For refugees confined to flimsy shelters without the right to work, study, or move freely, despair is rising. Many are turning to dangerous coping strategies.
Shrinking Protection Across the Region
Beyond Myanmar and Bangladesh, Rohingya refugees are facing hostility and legal persecution across Asia.
- India: Since May 2025, at least 232 Rohingya have been expelled—192 to Bangladesh and 40 abandoned at sea near Myanmar. Hundreds more remain arbitrarily detained, as authorities dismiss UNHCR protections.
- Malaysia: With more than 110,000 Rohingya, Malaysia continues to deny legal status, work rights, and access to state schools. Around 16,000 migrants and refugees remain in abusive detention centers where UNHCR has been barred since 2019.
- Indonesia: At least 695 Rohingya arrived by boat in 2025, joining over 1,000 already in shelters. With funding only 31 percent secured, refugees face inadequate support and frequent hostility from local communities.
This regional shift represents a deliberate move from tolerance to criminalization, closing asylum space and exposing Rohingya to traffickers and exploitation.
Diplomacy and the Illusion of Progress
In August, Bangladesh’s interim government hosted a Stakeholders’ Dialogue in Cox’s Bazar. Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus presented a seven-point plan calling for safe repatriation, an end to violence in Rakhine, sustainable funding, and accountability. For the first time, Rohingya representatives participated directly in such discussions.
Myanmar also claimed it would repatriate 180,000 Rohingya, with verification ongoing for another 70,000. But rights groups warn this is dangerously disconnected from reality. With Rakhine engulfed in war and famine, safe and voluntary return is impossible. Such rhetoric risks being used by international actors to justify aid cuts under the illusion that solutions are near.
Attention now turns to the UN High-Level Conference on Rohingya Muslims and Other Minorities in Myanmar, scheduled for September 30 in New York. However, Rohingya representation remains limited, raising concerns about top-down solutions divorced from refugee realities.
International Response: Funding Fatigue and Justice Delayed
Despite urgent needs, donor fatigue is deepening. Cuts have already forced agencies such as WFP, UNICEF, and UNFPA to warn of complete shutdowns of essential services.
Justice has also been delayed. Eight years after the 2017 genocide, no senior perpetrator has faced accountability. Proceedings at the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice continue, but progress is slow, reinforcing a culture of impunity in Myanmar.
A Critical Inflection Point
The crisis has evolved into a three-layered catastrophe: war and famine in Rakhine, humanitarian collapse in Bangladesh, and shrinking asylum across the region. Diplomatic conferences and repatriation promises cannot hide the reality on the ground.
Unless donor governments immediately close funding gaps, press for humanitarian access in Rakhine, and ensure accountability for perpetrators, the Rohingya face mass starvation, further displacement, and the collapse of basic protection.
The Rohingya crisis is no longer only about refugee management—it is a test of international will. The world must act decisively, not with statements and half-measures, but with the resources, pressure, and justice mechanisms required to protect one of the most persecuted peoples on earth.
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